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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd