It was eight weeks ago that the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.
Per the data, twice all season has the side registered an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
